Climate report warns of perilous times ahead

An international team of scientists has warned that the Earth is stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis, with environmental conditions that have never been encountered in human history.

‘The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth’, published in the journal Bioscience, includes an update on 35 annually reported ‘planetary vital signs’ which provide an ongoing time series of human climate-related activities and climate responses. Of the 35 vital signs tracked annually, 25 are at record levels.

The authors’ key findings include the following:

• Record-breaking temperatures and sea levels in 2023, with July 2024 seeing the three hottest days ever recorded
• Annual energy-related emissions exceeding 40 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent for the first time on record
• Accelerating loss of ice sheets and glaciers, with Greenland ice mass, Antarctica ice mass and average glacier thickness at all-time lows
• Rising frequency of billion-dollar climate-related disasters
• Populations of humans and ruminant livestock (cattle, sheep and goats) at record levels, with the human population increasing by 200,000 people per day
• Over 2300 heat-related deaths in the United States in 2023 — a 117% increase from 1999
   

“Since the publication of our 2023 report, multiple climate-related disasters have taken place, including a series of heatwaves across Asia that killed more than a thousand people and led to temperatures reaching 122°F in parts of India,” said Professor William Ripple from Oregon State University, the co-lead author of the report. “Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions. That would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even partial societal collapse.”

The new report highlights several climate ‘tipping points’ and feedback loops that could trigger catastrophic changes, including the collapse of major ice sheets and widespread forest dieback. The authors also discuss emerging threats such as Arctic rivers turned orange by toxic metals — an effect that coincides with permafrost thaw.

“We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis,” the scientists said, claiming that current policies have placed Earth on track for approximately 2.7°C of warming by 2100 — far in excess of the internationally agreed limit of 1.5°C. Indeed, a separate study published in the journal Nature finds that even a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit could still result in dire climate outcomes such as rising sea levels, which are irreversible on human timescales

The increased pressure on the climate sadly comes as little surprise, given that annual consumption of fossil fuels continues to climb and rose 1.5% in 2023. And while there have been some positives in the renewables sector — solar and wind consumption together increased by 15% in 2023 from the year before — renewable energy use only accounts for one-fourteenth of fossil fuel use. Furthermore, the recent increase in the use of renewables is largely attributed to an overall increase in demand for power, rather than because these energy sources are replacing fossil fuels.

Other pressures on the climate, such as livestock grazing and deforestation, have also increased. Annual tree cover loss across the globe rose from 22.8 million hectares in 2022 to 28.3 million in 2023, at a time when concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane are at their highest recorded levels. Much of the globe’s deforestation is due to the expansion of agriculture, with forests and bushlands cleared to make way for grazing livestock.

According to Ripple, this “ecological overshoot” — taking more than the Earth can safely give — has pushed the planet into climatic conditions more threatening than anything witnessed even by our prehistoric relatives.

“For example, Hurricane Helene caused more than 200 deaths in the south-eastern United States and massive flooding in a North Carolina mountain area thought to be a safe haven from climate change,” he said.

Ahead of the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in November, the report’s authors are urging governments to commit to actions to limit the amount of damage caused by climate change, including shifting away from fossil fuels to low-carbon renewables, restoring biodiverse ecosystems that play key roles in carbon cycling and storage, promoting sustainable ecological economics, and reducing waste and overconsumption by the wealthy.

“Despite six reports from the International Panel on Climate Change, hundreds of other reports, tens of thousands of scientific papers and 28 annual meetings of the UN’s Conference of the Parties, the world has made very little headway on climate change,” said joint lead author Dr Christopher Wolf, from the Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Network in Oregon.

“Humanity’s future depends on creativity, moral fibre and perseverance. If future generations are to inherit the world they deserve, decisive action is needed, and fast.”

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